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Trump’s re-election is a global earthquake, and some of the strongest shocks will be felt in the UK and Europe.
These are the three big reasons why:
There is now a massive geopolitical choice for Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Does he ditch his cautious, incrementalist approach to restoring economic, trade and diplomatic relations with the EU in favour of something that looks more like a big bang?
He’ll be under enormous pressure from his supporters, the Lib Dem party and Greens to go much faster than he instinctively wishes to restore trade integration with the EU and build a new security integration.
Apart from anything else, the UK will now be under intense pressure to increase defence spending.
Quite how that will be affordable is unclear, unless the government secures a growth boost by rejoining the EU’s single market.
Or does Starmer stick with relatively timid incremental changes to the UK’s relationship with the EU, and make a brave bet that he can work constructively with an emboldened Trump?
From what I’m told Trump admires what he sees as Starmer’s untrammelled control of parliament, while nursing a grievance at what looked to Trump like a coordinated Labour plan to help Kamala Harris.
Trump has historically been contemptuous of the EU. He would not be impressed by any perception that Starmer and the UK would choose friendship and loyalty to Brussels, Paris and Berlin over Washington.
But Starmer will have to choose.
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